prognosticators

If you're american (even if you're not) you likely know how the elections went last week. Democrats across the country made historic gains in almost every part of the u.s. They won more than most people had ever dreamed possible. As a former texan, I've been hoping the state would turn blue since the 1990s. That's the era when Governor Ann Richards lost reelection to a young tycoon named George W. Bush. Hmm, whatever happened to him? Never mind! Some people did predict that Democrats across the south would win big. People like Stacey Abrams organized for years to build durable and effective movements. Movements like the ongoing anti-ICE actions in Minnesota showed that everyday people could win. These networks took Dems and leftists to victory in places that many in politics had long written off.

But not everyone believed these organizers could ever pull it off. Even days before the election, many political pundits were outright wrong about who would win. It's one thing to hope (or sigh, bet money) in our free time about which way the electoral winds would shift. But this is their job. People get paid to predict these kinds of gains. Some did, calling a blue wave what we'd soon know as a blue tsunami. Others predicted that Republicans would once again beat the months of negative polling. They'd ride their gerrymandered red state seats back into the maw of fascism. Instead, a bunch of old racists whose names I've had to know for decades finally lost their seats (good riddance, Virginia Foxx!). So why were most people's guesses so wrong?

Bias. People seem to be living in smaller and smaller bubbles these days. I do it too—the block button on social media is like a canteen in the desert. Our worldview and the ways we perceive reality has a huge influence on our expectations. We expect something to happen because all our friends and family agree that it will happen.

Playing it safe. Many political pundits hedged their bets predicting election outcomes. The "safe" prediction was that Republicans would lose the House but remain in power in the Senate. This was a very likely outcome because it has happened before. Still, there were many signs, for months, that this would not be a typical election. Others don't see governance as anything more than elected officials making slight tweaks to their odds of reelection. Choosing the most likely outcome does not make a person good at predicting the future.

Benefits and incentives. Lots of people love the way things are. Some even profit from these conditions. Scott Colom is the Democratic Senator-Elect from Mississippi; he's the first Black senator for the state since Hiram Revels in 1870. He's also the first Mississippi Democratic senator since the Dems were the party of segregation. He called out Cook Political and other political groups for rating his senate race a "solid R." Colom claims this kept donors from funding his and other "longshot" campaigns in the south. Many of these campaigns exceeded expectations in spite of a lack of dollars, national support, and media coverage. Angie Nixon, a Black socialist senate candidate, came very close to winning in Florida. Jamie Davis in Louisiana also lost by a slim margin. Political pundits profit by predicting a future they themselves influence into existence. If they're right, it's proof they know what they're talking about. If they're wrong, they'll be back in another election cycle (please go away, James Carville!).

on educated guesses

Elections are a contest where one side always wins. We usually learn how things will turn out in a matter of hours, days, or weeks. But elections aren't the only times in our lives that we try to predict what might happen. Think about the decisions taking place in your community. Think about the ones that dominate your workplace. How should we solve them? How audacious can we make our dreams? What might happen if we manage to reach those dizzying heights?

An educated guess often forms based on a person's reasoning, experience, and personal gain. No matter how educated it may seem, it’s still a guess. The truth is that any moment could become extraordinary. We can prepare for these outcomes. We can even help them along. But when we resist the reality that's staring at us, it's our educated guesses that are holding us back.