by 
Happy (Gregorian calendar) new year! I had a restful and quiet time off. It was exactly what I needed. I hope things are good with you, too.
This week’s post is about boxed water. It sells well under the brand Boxed Water Is Better. You might have seen these cartons over the holidays at an airport newsagent, grocery store, or gas station. It’s also a great example of a big change that doesn’t lead to anything new.
Water often gets packaged for sale in plastic bottles. Those things are everywhere. In 2009, Boxed Water Is Better launched with the simple idea that plastic waste is bad. Boxed water is etc. As the company grows, they’re adding flavors and brand partnerships in time for the end of our empire. Rome would’ve had boxed water by the end if only they had invented plastic sooner. But cartons of water isn’t that much better for the environment. Krystina Jarvis points out that cartons are paper layered with plastic and foil. The plastic industry itself claims that these are recyclable, but it would be very hard to do well. Changing all those plastic bottles to plastic boxes won’t do much. It’ll only funnel more money to the same industry in disguise.
It had me thinking about change in general. Almost all change is gradual. We’re asking a lot of people to put effort into doing something different (and better, we hope). How can we know when changing the status quo won’t actually work? How could we notice this in advance?
spot the difference
Who’s pushing for the change? What’s their motive? People usually sell change as more efficient, cheaper, cleaner. Do the people pushing for this change hold power, meaning, do they have money or influence to make it happen? Who is backing their claims? Do they stand to gain money or influence? Swapping bottles for cartons might look like the plastics industry is taking a hit. But delaying profits, or reducing potential losses to profits, is still a benefit to them.
What’s the expected outcome of this change? Picture the change as a small seed in the ground. Now picture what this change might look like as a tree. How different is that result from where we’re headed now? We need real, transformative change at every level of society. Will a small swap make more than money for a few? Boxed water may change the contents of our landfills but not the volume of trash we produce. Sold as an environmentally-conscious alternative, it might even make our trash problems worse.
Who will feel the positive impact of this change? Who won’t feel those benefits; who might even experience negative effects? How do we know? Bottled water, no matter the packaging, is a billion dollar industry. Water from plastic bottles and cartons is usually worse than tap water. It’s also a bandage for the real issue: buyers believe they won’t always have easy access to clean water.
Drinking water is usually pretty hard to find in public. Most people may not want to drink from a public fountain that isn’t cleaned often (or from one that people put their mouths on). But it would cost us much less to install clean water dispensers all over the country. It would also benefit many more people who can’t afford to buy the bottles. It would reduce plastic waste much more than cartons do. And if we’re all drinking the same tap water, we can afford upgrades that make it cleaner and safer for all.
change that works
Fighting for change is often a long, grueling struggle. It takes organizing effort and seismic levels of persuasion to make changes at any level. People in power can dig in their heels when they don’t want things to change for them. They can convince people with less power, even those who would benefit from change, that it’s too risky to try. If we’re going to put in the work to make a difference, shouldn’t we want it to lead to something better? Something more than what we can get now? I’m tired of losing ground by standing still.
It’s 2025. We’re at the start of another year, a quarter century since the millennium began. I know this is going to be a big year for change—unwanted and otherwise. My hope for the year is that we leave performative change behind us. Let’s focus our energy on what matters most.
josh
my name is josh martinez. i have always loved trying to understand systems, and the systems that built those systems. i spend a lot of time thinking about how to get there from here.
i'm the founder and a consultant at Future Emergent.
say hello: josh@bethefuture.space
